At one side, where the growing opposition unity has been creating some problems for ruling Bhartiya Janata Party before the 2019 Elections, on the other hand, BJP Allie’s parties have started showing their colors. After the Shiv Sena, JDU has now put a demand in front of BJP in Bihar. The party wants to contest the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 for 25 out of 40 seats in Bihar. Political analysts considered to be a sign of a crack in the BJP-JDU coalition. Through research, it is being assumed that if the BJP Contested the Lok Sabha without the Alliance in 2019 and if all the parties against it contested together, what would be the picture? Also, what could happen if this election is contested by the BJP with their Allies.
Condition 1:
BJP contest the 2019 elections without alliance and the whole opposition would remain united against Modi …
In this situation, BJP will remain weak in 22 out of 29 states and seven Union Territories. At the same time, compared to 2014, the party will be seemed weak in 12 states. Of these, 4 states will be those in which the Party Alliance has been the largest party. At the same time, there will be 8 states where the BJP was the single largest party. These 12 states have some important states like UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra. And due to the unity of the opposition parties, there Voting percentage is reaching more than BJP here. As per the voting percentage, in 2014 BJP has got the highest percentage of votes in 21 states. And, with their Allies, BJP was at number 1 across 25 states. However, then the opposition was not united.
Condition 2:
BJP go with the alliance to the next Lok Sabha and the whole opposition remains united against Modi …
In this scenario, BJP will remain weak in 17 out of 29 states and seven union territories. If we compared this data to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, then this figure will be changed for 6 major states. It has been extracted based on the percentage of votes received last time. We can understand this figure in an easy way; for example- In 2019, when the entire opposition together contested against Modi, BJP would fall in the 5 largest states and they could lose a large number of Lok Sabha Seats. In these 5 states, there are total 249 Lok Sabha seats. The situation for BJP might be like this.
- Uttar Pradesh (80 seats)
- In Uttar Pradesh, there are 80 Lok Sabha seats, if Congress, SP, and BSP join hands to contest against Modi in 2019, then their voting percentage will be more than 50% (BSP has alone more than 20 vote share in UP). And it will definitely weaken the BJP.
- Maharashtra (48 seats) After being Shiv-Sena announcement, that they are going to contest alone in 2019 Elections in Maharashtra, this state is going to be more important for ruling BJP. There have been a dispute in the relationship between Shiv Sena and BJP. In 2014, BJP got 27.30 percent votes in Maharashtra. If the Shiv Sena contested alone here and the anti-Modi opponents are together with them then they can become number one in the Opposition State with 34.10 percent votes.
- West Bengal (42 seats) In 2014 BJP got total 18 percent votes from this state. If Trinamool Congress, Congress, and Communist Party comes together, then their vote percentage goes up to 72.5%, which could create a difficulty for BJP to get more Lok Sabha seats from Bengal.
- Bihar (40 seats) BJP got 29.40% votes in 2014 from Bihar. At present the JDU is with the BJP and If JDU contest elections alone in 2019 and the remaining Opposition ie Congress and RJD contests together, then their vote percentage will become 29.7. On this situation, BJP might lose more than 10-13 seats from this state.
Now BJP Alliance parties have sharpened their pace. Among them, Uddhav Thackeray’s led Shivsena in Maharashtra, Om Prakash’s Bharatiya Samaj Party in UP and Nitish’s Janta Dal-United in Bihar are included. With a total of 168 LS seats, these are the three big states according to the Lok Sabha stats. Apart from Shiv Sena, remaining two could also break their alliance with BJP. And this could directly jeopardize the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
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