Voting has been cast for the four Lok Sabha seats in three states; Kairana (UP), Palghar (Maharashtra), Bhandara-Gondiya (Maharashtra) and Nagaland. And people are waiting for the result of these bypoll elections. Priorly the ruling BJP hasn’t succeeded to win the seats of Phulpur and Gorakhpur in UP bypolls 2018. Before the bypolls, three out of four of these seats were captured by BJP. The fourth seat was vacant by the resignation of the current Chief Minister of Nagaland, Nephew Rio. Who was elected as MP from Nagaland. Now, BJP is under pressure to save these four seats. Talking about the data, Since 2014, the bye-elections have been held for 23 Lok Sabha seats. In which BJP did not win any new seat, instead of winning, they have lost their six seats out of 10.
The PM Modi’s Vadodara seat was one of the major seat, who was retained by BJP in 2014 bypolls, the second seat was Assam’s CM, the third was the traditional seat of Gopinath Munde(who had died in a road accident). The fourth seat was (Shahdol), who was won by BJP with a big margin of 60 thousand votes. As per this scenario, these reflections can also be seen in the Kairana Bypolls and 2019 General Elections also.
BJP won only prestigious seats of PM/CM so far
- Vadodara Seat: 23 Lok Sabha by-elections have been held since 2014. Out of which two seats in 2014 and two seats in 2016 were won by the BJP. The first seat was from Vadodara. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Modi contested from Varanasi and Vadodara and won both the seats. Later, Modi left the Vadodara seat. From here, BJP has fielded deputy mayor Ranjanben, who defeated Narendra Rawat of Congress.
- Beed Seat: The second seat was from Beed of Maharashtra. Which was vacant after the demise of BJP leader Gopinath Munde. From here, Gopinath Munde’s daughter Pritam Munde won by a record difference of 6.96 thousand votes. The Congress and the NCP contested together in the bypoll election.
- Lakhimpur Seat: The third seat was from Lakhimpur of Assam. From here, BJP leader Surbanand Sonowal had resigned after becoming CM. After which Baruah easily won this seat for BJP.
Shahdol Seat: the Fourth seat was MP’s Shahdol. The seat was vacant after the demise of BJP leader Dalpat Singh Parste. Here, the Shivraj cabinet minister the two-time MP, Dnyan Singh was fielded on BJP’s ticket. Congress candidate gave a lot of fight to Gyan Singh But at the end, he defeated the Congress’ Himadri Singh by 60,000 votes.
- Mainpuri Seat: There was a wave of Modi in 2014. In the meantime, there were bypolls in Mainpuri, considered to be the SP’s stronghold. Union Minister Kalraj Mishra, Yogi Adityanath, state president Laxmikant Vajpayee campaigned in the election for this seat. But BJP could not win in the SP’s stronghold region. SP leader Sharad Pratap Singh defeated BJP candidate Prem Singh Shakya. This seat was vacant after Mulayam Singh Yadav’s resignation.
Ratlam Seat: There was a by-election held in Ratlam-Jhabua in the year 2015. This seat was the traditional seat of Congress leader Kantilal Bhuria. BJP leader Dilip Singh had won in Modi wave in 2014. After his death, the seat was vacant and Kantilal Bhuria defeated Dilip Singh’s daughter Nirmala Bhuria with 88,877 votes.
In addition to Hindi belt areas, Modi wave failed in other states. The Modi wave that was seen in the Lok Sabha election 2014, the most opposite effect was seen in Hindi speaking areas. After the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the bye-elections were held in Odisha and Telangana, and BJP did not win a single seat here. Apart from this, elections were held in West Bengal, Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir also. And BJP didn’t win a single seat in these bypolls.
In the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha election, the alliance of anti-BJP parties could spoil Modi’s electoral math. An example of this has already been seen in UP’s Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha by-elections. In both the seats, SP-BSP contested the election against BJP. The result was that CM Yogi Adityanath could not save his traditional seat of Gorakhpur. At the same time, UP’s deputy CM’s Phulpur seat was also booked by the SP-BSP joint candidate.
Apart from the Hindi belt areas, alliance with other state-parties has not worked
In the Lok Sabha by-election, BJP also contested in other states with local parties. But the alliance did not work for them. Like in the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat, BJP contested the elections with PDP. But Farooq Abdullah of the National Conference defeated the BJP-PDP alliance candidate. Apart from this, BJP-TDP contested two Lok Sabha seats in Telangana. But both were lost.
Modi did not come to campaign for by-elections
In the Lok Sabha by-elections, PM Modi did not come to campaign for any seat. The effect of which also show Of the 23 seats, BJP won only in 4 seats. Looking at this pattern of BJP, it seems that the party is completely dependent on Modi. Who had to suffer in by-elections in by-elections.
2018 By-polls in Rajasthan, losing both the Lok Sabha seats in 2018
There were bypolls in Rajasthan, for the Ajmer and Lok Sabha seats in Alwar. Rajasthan Congress President Sachin Pilot has strongly campaigned against BJP. BJP’s Vasundhara government was active in the state. Despite this, the BJP lost badly on both the seats. Anti-incumbency was a major reason for both seats. In these bypolls, BJP vote share has also shrunk.